NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the Democratic primary for New York’s 13th Congressional District seat, held on 23 June 2026, to determine the nominee for the 2026 midterm general election. Incumbent Adriano Espaillat faces a serious challenge from activist Darializa Avila Chevalier, with the crowd-implied probability currently at 62% favouring a Democratic nominee emerging, though the frontrunner within that party is Avila Chevalier at 53% versus Espaillat at 48%[1][2]. The race is described as one of the most contentious in New York, with both candidates having participated in a live primary debate hosted by NY1[4][7].

Historically, incumbent challenges in urban districts like NY-13 often hinge on local activism and filing momentum rather than national trends, mirroring cases where young activists displaced established figures after intense grassroots mobilisation. Comparable 2024 and 2022 primary upsets in similar districts show that early filing deadlines and debate performance significantly shift odds before the vote, framing the current 62% probability as a reflection of strong organisational backing rather than certainty[6][8]. Traders should watch for candidate announcements, the primary debate schedule, and any withdrawal filings, as these dependencies directly impact book depth. Recent coverage from abc7NY highlights the contentious nature of the race, noting that Avila Chevalier’s activist profile is a key factor in her rising support[4].

The market’s traction correlates with funding flows that drive its liquidity, much like payment rails such as Klarna, SEPA, and USDC facilitate deposits and withdrawals on prediction platforms. As traders deposit funds to position on Avila Chevalier or Espaillat, the resulting on-ramp friction and fee structures influence how quickly odds adjust, making the book depth a direct function of these financial flows. The settlement window ends 23 June 2026, with a fallback resolution to “Other” if no nominee is announced by 3 November 2026[1][3]. Resolution will be based on a consensus of official Democratic sources, including democrats.org, ensuring clarity regardless of any nominee replacement before election day[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.