Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Germany meet Côte d’Ivoire in a World Cup group-stage match that goes to the 90-minute scoreline only, so the key market question is not who advances but whether the final regulation result matches one of the listed exact outcomes. FIFA’s official match centre shows a 20:00 GMT kick-off on 20 June 2026, which aligns with the market’s settlement window and leaves little room for delay risk unless the fixture is postponed. [3]

The current 4% implied probability for one specific exact score is consistent with how thin these markets usually trade: even in lopsided fixtures, any single scoreline carries only a small slice of the total outcome space. Germany were priced as a clear pre-match favourite by ESPN, with Côte d’Ivoire a sizeable underdog, but exact-score contracts fragment that edge across several common results such as 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and 3-0 rather than concentrating it in one number. [2] Historical head-to-head data also points to limited prior signal; the only previous meeting cited in live match coverage was a 2-2 draw in a 2009 friendly. [1][9]

For book depth, the more important friction is funding flow than football form. Markets like this tend to widen when deposits are cumbersome, so traders will watch how smoothly Klarna, SEPA and USDC on-ramps are working into game time, and whether withdrawal rails are clearing quickly enough to recycle balances. Any late lineup news, weather interruption, or scheduling change can move exact-score pricing sharply because small pools are sensitive to fast capital inflows and outflows; that effect is strongest when settlement is imminent and only a narrow set of scores remains live.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.