Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The next US–Iran diplomatic meeting would be a live signal on whether the Muscat channel keeps moving or stalls again. The clearest recent comparator is that the two sides have already held indirect talks in Oman, including a February 2026 round in Muscat mediated by Omani foreign minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi, after an earlier high-level round in April 2025 led by Steve Witkoff and Abbas Araghchi.[1][2]

That history is why a 0% implied chance is more a statement about *friction* than about diplomacy being impossible. Since 1980 the US and Iran have had no formal diplomatic relations, and recent contact has been intermittent, usually indirect and routed through intermediaries rather than a fully open bilateral format.[2][3] In practice, markets like this often stay anchored near zero until there is a named venue, a published agenda, or confirmation that both delegations will appear in person; without those, the default outcome is no meeting that satisfies the market’s definition.

For traders, the main catalysts are official announcements from Washington, Tehran, or Oman, plus any reported scheduling around Muscat, Geneva, or UN-side contact windows. Watch for whether talks remain indirect, whether a mediator is explicitly designated, and whether the agenda stays narrow to nuclear issues and sanctions relief, as that was the frame of the February 2026 round.[1][2] On the funding side, this kind of event tends to trade most cleanly when deposits are frictionless: quicker on-ramps such as Klarna or SEPA, and fast withdrawal rails like USDC, usually matter more for book depth than the headline itself because they determine how easily fresh liquidity can arrive and stay active.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.