Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 28?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's weather in late May sits at the threshold between spring and early summer, with historical daily highs typically ranging from 28°C to 32°C. The city's subtropical climate produces consistent warm conditions by this time of year, though variability remains—occasional cooler systems can suppress temperatures into the mid-20s, whilst heat waves push readings above 35°C. Resolution will depend on the single highest temperature recorded at Pudong International Airport's official meteorological station on 28 May 2026, measured in Celsius and converted to the applicable range bracket.

Historical May records for Shanghai show that temperatures exceeding 35°C occur in roughly one year out of every three or four during this month, typically driven by high-pressure systems moving north from the South China Sea. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are currently pricing in either very narrow temperature bands at the lower end of plausible outcomes, or minimal liquidity depth across the full range of options. Comparable late-May forecasting in Shanghai has historically centred on the 30–33°C band, with extreme highs (above 36°C) and cool outliers (below 25°C) each representing tail outcomes.

Traders monitoring this market should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding 28 May, as well as any El Niño or La Niña phase updates that influence regional pressure patterns. Deposit friction remains material for UK-based traders: SEPA transfers and Klarna on-ramps typically settle within 2–3 business days, whilst USDC deposits offer faster book access if liquidity pools deepen closer to settlement. Early positioning now locks in current odds before seasonal weather models converge on tighter probability distributions.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.