Highest temperature in London on June 9?

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Market context

London's highest temperature on 9 June 2026 will be measured at City Airport and resolved against historical weather records from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must commit capital before the final hours of that day. Given the 0% crowd probability, the market reflects either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal liquidity depth—a common pattern in niche weather markets where deposit friction and withdrawal rails constrain participation.

June temperatures in London typically range between 18–23°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 28°C. Historical data from the Met Office shows that days exceeding 25°C in early June occur roughly once every three to four years; readings above 30°C are exceptionally rare in this month. The current probability distribution suggests traders are pricing a narrow outcome, though without visible order book depth, the market may lack sufficient SEPA or Klarna-funded positions to establish genuine price discovery. Comparable weather markets on this platform show that early-season temperature predictions often concentrate around modal historical values until fresh meteorological forecasts shift expectations.

The UK Met Office will publish its extended forecast for early June 2026 in the weeks preceding settlement. Any Atlantic weather systems or high-pressure systems tracking northward could materially alter the implied range. Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's medium-range guidance and cross-reference Wunderground's historical data for City Airport specifically, as urban microclimates can differ from broader London readings. Withdrawal availability through USDC or domestic payment rails may influence whether additional capital flows into this market as settlement approaches.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.