Highest temperature in London on June 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 1 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical data from Wunderground's weather station at that location, with the final reading locked in at 12:00 UTC. Current market pricing reflects near-zero conviction across all temperature bands, suggesting either genuine uncertainty about early summer conditions or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds.

London's June temperatures typically range between 18–23°C, though extremes have reached 28°C in recent decades. The 0% crowd probability across all outcomes indicates the market lacks depth rather than consensus forecasting. Historical June data from City Airport shows variability driven by Atlantic weather systems and occasional continental air masses; comparing this market's structure to similar single-day weather contracts reveals that early-season European temperature markets often see late-stage activity as the settlement date approaches and meteorological models converge. The absence of early positioning suggests traders are waiting for more reliable 10–14 day forecasts.

Deposit friction and withdrawal rails directly affect whether this market accumulates sufficient trading volume to establish credible pricing. Traders using SEPA transfers or Klarna on-ramps face settlement timelines that may delay capital redeployment; those holding USDC can exit positions faster post-resolution. The market's current traction depends on whether the platform's payment infrastructure can attract enough liquidity providers to compete with other weather derivatives. Watch for platform announcements regarding deposit incentives or fee structures in May 2026, as these typically drive the final surge in trading activity before single-day weather markets settle.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.