Highest temperature in Beijing on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at Capital International Airport Station and settled against Wunderground historical data. Late May sits within Beijing's late spring period, typically characterised by warming trends as the city transitions toward summer monsoon season. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's temperature range recorded at the airport meteorological station.

Historical May temperatures at Beijing's airport show a median high around 28–30°C, with outliers reaching 33–35°C during heat waves and occasional dips to 22–24°C during cooler spells. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity in this particular resolution range. Comparable late-May forecasts from prior years indicate volatility tied to early-season heat events; the China Meteorological Administration's seasonal outlooks typically flag May as a transition month where cold fronts can still disrupt warming patterns.

Traders should monitor China's weather service forecasts released in the weeks preceding 25 May, as official seasonal anomaly predictions influence book depth on temperature markets. Deposit friction remains material for this market's liquidity—traders using SEPA transfers or Klarna on-ramps experience settlement delays that can compress trading windows. USDC deposits settle instantly, allowing late-stage position adjustments closer to the resolution date. The airport station's automated reporting system publishes data within hours of day-end, reducing settlement disputes but requiring traders to confirm Wunderground's historical archive reflects the correct station identifier (ZBAA).

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.