Highest temperature in Seoul on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 31 May 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, with traders betting on which temperature band will record the day's high in Celsius. Late May in the Seoul metropolitan area typically sits in the warm-to-hot range as early summer establishes itself, making this a straightforward seasonal forecast rather than an extreme-weather event.

Historical May data from Incheon shows highs clustering between 24–28°C in the final week of the month, though outlier years have pushed toward 30°C or beyond during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either thin liquidity on this specific date or genuine uncertainty about which temperature bracket will resolve. Comparable markets on Seoul's June temperatures have drawn modest deposit volumes, indicating traders view spring-to-summer transitions as lower-conviction bets than winter extremes. Payment friction on smaller weather markets remains material; traders using SEPA transfers or Klarna instalments often defer entry until book depth justifies the settlement-window risk.

The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes 10-day forecasts roughly a week before the settlement date, which typically triggers position adjustments as traders reconcile model consensus with their initial thesis. Late-May weather systems over the Korean peninsula remain influenced by Pacific high-pressure ridges and occasional moisture from the South China Sea, both of which shift forecaster confidence materially. Deposit rails matter here: traders with immediate USDC access can enter closer to the resolution window when forecasts solidify, whilst those relying on slower bank transfers must commit earlier or accept wider uncertainty bands.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.