Highest temperature in Seoul on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 4 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, where the highest temperature recorded throughout that day determines the settlement outcome. Early summer conditions in the Seoul metropolitan area typically see daytime highs between 24–28°C, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders have not yet engaged with this market, likely because the event lies eight months ahead and deposit friction remains a barrier to entry. Klarna and SEPA rails currently process most European funding flows into prediction markets, whilst USDC on-ramps serve traders already holding stablecoins; book depth typically accelerates once deposit fees fall below 2% and withdrawal timelines compress to under 48 hours.

Historical June temperatures in Seoul show considerable variance. The Korea Meteorological Administration records indicate that 4 June has seen highs ranging from 19°C in cooler years to 31°C during early heat waves, with a 30-year median near 25°C. The current flat probability reflects both temporal distance and the absence of seasonal forecasting signals; as spring 2026 progresses, meteorological outlooks from the Korean Met Office will sharpen predictions around monsoon onset timing and early-summer pressure patterns. Traders monitoring the North Pacific subtropical high's positioning in May and June typically gain edge on temperature extremes. Market traction historically accelerates once deposit rails stabilise and competing books on comparable Seoul-weather events demonstrate sufficient liquidity to support 3–5 figure positions.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.