Highest temperature in Paris on May 31?

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Market context

On 31 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will determine which range this market settles into. Historical May data for the station shows typical highs between 20–24°C, though heat waves can push readings into the high 20s or low 30s. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting resolution data or treating the market as illiquid. May temperatures in the Île-de-France region rarely exceed 28°C, making extreme heat scenarios statistically uncommon but not unprecedented; the region experienced 32°C on 31 May 2003 during an exceptional warm spell.

Traders monitoring this market should track European weather forecasts released in late May 2026, particularly from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Atmospheric patterns in early June often reflect late-spring jet stream positioning; any northward displacement of warm air masses from southern Europe could materially shift temperature outcomes. Book depth on this market will likely depend on deposit flows through payment rails available on the platform—SEPA transfers and Klarna on-ramps typically drive liquidity in weather markets during European trading hours, whilst USDC settlement attracts traders managing multi-chain positions.

The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 31 May, requiring traders to deposit and position before morning European trading concludes. Wunderground's historical data feed for LFPB station provides the authoritative resolution source, eliminating ambiguity around measurement location or methodology once the day concludes.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on May 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Deposit UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.