Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

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Market context

On 12 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The National Weather Service maintains continuous temperature records at this major aviation hub, and Wunderground archives these readings with hourly granularity. Settlement depends on the peak daily temperature in Fahrenheit, resolved against historical data accessible through the platform's weather history tool.

New York's June temperatures have historically clustered between 75°F and 88°F, with extreme highs above 90°F occurring roughly once every three to four years during early summer. The 100% crowd probability reflects the certainty that *some* temperature will be recorded on this date—not confidence in any particular range. Comparable June days at LaGuardia show median highs around 79–82°F, though the 2012 heat wave pushed readings to 94°F and the cooler June 2009 saw a peak of 71°F. This variance explains why traders deposit capital across multiple outcome brackets rather than concentrating on a single band.

Atmospheric patterns in early June depend on jet stream positioning and Atlantic moisture transport, typically stabilising by mid-month. The National Weather Service Northeast Regional Office publishes extended forecasts approximately 10 days before settlement, offering the first concrete catalyst for position adjustments. Traders using SEPA transfers or Klarna deposits should account for funding delays when positioning ahead of that forecast window, as book depth often shifts sharply once meteorological models converge on a likely range.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.