Highest temperature in London on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 31 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical data pulled from Weather Underground's archive for that specific station and date, with the final reading locked in at midday UTC. Current market pricing reflects near-zero conviction across all temperature bands, suggesting either thin liquidity or genuine uncertainty about seasonal conditions eighteen months forward.

London's late May temperatures typically cluster between 18–23°C, though extremes have reached 28°C in anomalous years. The 0% crowd probability across all ranges indicates the market has attracted minimal deposit activity; traders depositing via SEPA or Klarna often avoid weather markets with shallow order books, as wide bid-ask spreads erode returns on small positions. Historical May 31st data from the same station shows the median high around 20°C, with only occasional outliers above 25°C. Comparable European weather markets with similar settlement windows have seen book depth improve as the event date approaches, typically within six weeks.

The UK Met Office publishes seasonal outlooks quarterly, with the next update due in spring 2026; any forecast revision toward warmer or cooler May conditions could shift trader positioning. Bank holidays and school half-term scheduling in late May may influence local air quality and urban heat island effects around the airport. Deposit rails supporting this market—particularly USDC settlement and SEPA withdrawal options—will determine whether liquidity consolidates around consensus ranges or remains fragmented across multiple bands.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on May 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Deposit UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.