Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 6?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 6 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's peak temperature in degrees Celsius. This market settles on that single measurement, published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once the date has passed and data finalised. The resolution hinges entirely on official meteorological records, measured to one decimal place, with no discretion or adjustment applied after publication.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster reliably between 28–32°C, with historical extremes rarely breaching 35°C during early summer. The 0% crowd probability suggests either insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds or genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve. Comparable weather markets on this platform typically see traction once deposit rails stabilise—SEPA transfers and USDC on-ramps reduce friction for European and international traders, whilst Klarna's deferred-payment option has historically drawn retail participation into low-stakes meteorological events. Book depth improves materially once funding flows settle; early-stage weather markets often trade thin until payment infrastructure attracts sustained volume.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts, updated monthly, which typically arrive by late May. The market's settlement date falls within the pre-monsoon period, when afternoon thunderstorms can suppress peak temperatures or, conversely, when high-pressure systems drive heat spikes. No major weather announcements are scheduled before resolution, meaning the market will track real-time atmospheric conditions rather than anticipated events. Withdrawal timing matters here: traders should confirm whether their chosen deposit method (SEPA, USDC, or Klarna settlement) aligns with the 12:00 UTC settlement window on 6 June.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 6? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.