Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Islamic Republic's governing structures—the Supreme Leader's office, the Guardian Council, the Revolutionary Guards' clerical chain of command—would need to be overthrown, dissolved, or rendered incapable of controlling a majority of Iran's territory and population by mid-2026 for this market to settle Yes. The 1% crowd probability reflects the regime's institutional resilience, security apparatus capacity, and the absence of imminent, coordinated state collapse. No active civil war, mass defection of security forces, or parallel government claiming legitimacy currently exists at scale.

Historical precedent matters here. The Shah's fall in 1979 took months of escalating unrest, military fragmentation, and clerical mobilisation to crystallise. The Soviet Union's 1991 dissolution involved competing republics, economic freefall, and elite defection across a vast federation. Iran's 2009 Green Movement protests, by contrast, were contained within weeks through security force cohesion and targeted arrests. The regime has since tightened internal security, expanded drone and cyber capabilities, and consolidated IRGC economic power. Traders pricing this market near 1% are implicitly assessing that 18 months is insufficient runway for comparable systemic breakdown.

Near-term catalysts centre on economic pressure, currency volatility, and any unexpected security force fracture. The US sanctions regime remains in flux pending 2024 election outcomes; oil price movements directly affect regime revenue. Street protests around labour rights or ethnic grievances occasionally spike but have not yet triggered cascading institutional defection. Traders should monitor IRGC leadership statements, any public splits within the Guardian Council, and reports of significant military unit disloyalty—none of which are currently evident in major news sources. Liquidity on this market depends on deposit accessibility; SEPA transfers and USDC on-ramps reduce friction for European traders building positions.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.