World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has already generated at least one missed penalty in open play, so the market is now trading against a live tournament total rather than a purely pre-event guess.[4][9] With the contract settling on penalties missed or saved in regular time, stoppage time or extra time only, every additional spot kick in the knockouts matters more than the shootout drama that often dominates headlines but does not count here.[1][3] At a crowd-implied **4% YES**, the book is pricing a fairly high threshold, which usually means traders see the required total as needing an unusually penalty-heavy tournament rather than just a few routine misses.

Comparable World Cups suggest the scoreline can move quickly if the bracket delivers repeated VAR reviews, late-game fouls and high-pressure penalties, but the base rate still depends on how many penalties are actually awarded and taken in open play.[1][8][9] The current price also has to be read through the funding side of the market: higher participation tends to follow smoother deposits and withdrawals, while friction in card funding or bank rails can thin out depth and widen gaps between early and late money. In practice, that makes payment options such as SEPA, Klarna and USDC relevant to liquidity as much as to convenience, because easy on-ramping tends to bring in more small traders and faster repricing around match events.

For catalysts, watch FIFA and referee-briefing updates on the application of the new World Cup law changes, especially VAR review scope, added stoppage-time management and any guidance that could affect how often penalties are awarded or retaken.[1] The tournament schedule itself is the other key driver: more knockout football means more high-leverage penalty chances, while an early exit or truncated competition would leave the settlement anchored only to completed matches. Near-dated fixtures with strong mismatch potential, late defensive fatigue and attack-minded teams are the most likely points for the market to repric e sharply as fresh penalties land.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Deposit UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.