Highest temperature in Wellington on May 25?

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Market context

Wellington's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at the airport weather station and resolved via Wunderground historical data. May sits in Wellington's autumn season, when daily highs typically range between 12–16°C, though the city's exposed coastal position and variable wind patterns create considerable day-to-day volatility. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's temperature swing before final resolution.

Historical May records for Wellington show a maximum high of 20.3°C (recorded in 2008), with most years clustering in the 16–18°C range for peak daily temperatures. The 0% crowd probability reflects the absence of early-season heat events typical of autumn months; sustained warm air masses are rare this late in the season. Traders should note that May 25 falls near the tail end of the southern hemisphere's autumn, when subtropical systems occasionally push northward but rarely deliver the sustained warmth needed to breach the upper temperature bands.

The New Zealand MetService publishes 10-day forecasts updated daily, with the most reliable guidance emerging 3–5 days before the event. Traders depositing via Klarna, SEPA transfers, or USDC will need sufficient runway to fund positions before the forecast window tightens; late deposits risk missing optimal odds if a warming system materialises in the final 72 hours. Wunderground's historical archive is the sole authoritative source, making real-time station access during 25 May critical for settlement verification.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.