Highest temperature in Wellington on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Wellington's highest temperature on 4 June 2026 will be recorded at the airport weather station and resolved against historical data from Wunderground. June falls within Wellington's late autumn period, when daily maxima typically range between 11–14°C, though conditions vary considerably based on frontal systems moving across the lower North Island. The 0% crowd probability reflects the absence of early positioning, a common pattern for weather markets that settle months ahead and lack immediate news hooks.

Historical June temperatures at Wellington Airport show a ceiling around 20°C on warm days, with records from the past decade indicating that readings above 18°C occur in roughly one in five Junes. The market's temperature bands will determine which range traders select; understanding local climate patterns—including the influence of Cook Strait wind funnelling and the Southern Ocean's moderating effect—helps calibrate expectations against the crowd's current indifference. Comparable late-autumn weather markets in New Zealand typically see activity spike only in the final fortnight before settlement.

Traders monitoring this market should track MetService forecasts released in late May, which will provide the first concrete directional signal for early June conditions. Deposit flows into weather prediction markets often accelerate once seasonal forecasts become available, potentially shifting book depth as traders gain conviction. For those funding positions via SEPA transfers or Klarna, settlement timing aligns with the 12:00 UTC window on 4 June, allowing same-day withdrawal processing on most platforms.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.