Highest temperature in Wellington on June 21?

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Market context

The key question is whether Wellington Airport gets anywhere near a warm afternoon high, and that is usually a low-probability outcome in June. Wellington’s June daily highs typically sit around the low teens Celsius, with WeatherSpark showing average highs near 12–13°C and only rare excursions above the high teens.[2] That makes any market pricing for the top temperature range highly sensitive to an unusually mild air mass, strong sunshine, and local wind effects around the airport rather than a normal winter pattern.

Historical extremes show why the book can move abruptly when deposits arrive and liquidity deepens. NIWA notes Wellington’s all-time maximum at Kelburn reached 30.3°C, but that is a different station and a much more sheltered benchmark than the airport site used for settlement.[1] Older climate summaries also point to exceptional June warmth in Wellington, including 31.9°C on 21 June 1980, but such readings are outliers rather than a guide to typical settlement-day temperatures.[4] In practical terms, a 0% YES line can persist until fresh funding hits the market, yet even small on-ramp flows through card or bank rails can widen the book if traders are reacting to a genuine warm-up signal.

The main catalysts are the forecast updates that cover the airport specifically, especially any shift in overnight minima, cloud cover, or northerly flow in the hours before the settlement window closes. Traders usually watch MetService past-weather and short-range guidance alongside airport observations, because the market resolves on the highest recorded temperature at Wellington Intl Airport Station, not a city centre reading.[9] Deposit friction matters here: markets like this often stay thin until users complete funding via SEPA, Klarna, or USDC, and then reprice quickly when a weather model change lands close to settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.