Highest temperature in Toronto on May 30?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Toronto's daily high temperature on 30 May 2026 will be recorded at Pearson International Airport, the city's official weather station. The settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical data feed for that specific date, with resolution occurring at midday UTC. Current market pricing reflects deep uncertainty about late-spring weather patterns in the Greater Toronto Area, where May highs typically range between 20–25°C but can exceed 28°C during warm spells.

Historical May 30th records at Toronto Pearson show considerable variance. The station recorded 28.3°C on 30 May 2015 and 26.1°C on 30 May 2019, whilst cooler years saw highs near 18°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting seasonal forecasts or treating this as a liquidity-constrained market awaiting deposit inflows. Comparable North American airport weather markets typically see activity concentration in the final 72 hours before settlement, when meteorological models stabilise and traders with SEPA or USDC funding rails can execute positions efficiently.

Catalysts include Environment and Climate Change Canada's extended forecast releases, typically issued 10–14 days prior to the target date. Traders should monitor late-May atmospheric patterns—particularly jet stream positioning and high-pressure system development over eastern North America—which drive temperature extremes. Deposit friction remains material; traders using Klarna or direct bank transfers may face settlement delays that compress trading windows, concentrating liquidity in the final week when most funding rails have cleared.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.