Highest temperature in Toronto on May 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Toronto's highest temperature on 24 May 2026 will be recorded at Pearson International Airport and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must assess spring weather patterns and seasonal norms before late morning on that date. Given the 0% crowd probability, the market currently reflects either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity and liquidity depth.

May temperatures in Toronto typically range from 15–22°C, with historical highs on this date clustering around 20–24°C over the past two decades. The 0% reading suggests either the crowd has priced out certain temperature ranges entirely or the market lacks sufficient deposit flow to establish meaningful odds across all buckets. Traders depositing via SEPA, Klarna, or USDC should note that shallow books on weather markets often mean wider spreads and slower settlement confirmations once Wunderground data publishes.

Spring weather volatility in southern Ontario depends on jet stream positioning and Great Lakes influence; late May can see either cool northerly flows or warm southwesterly patterns. The National Weather Service and Environment and Climate Change Canada issue forecasts 10–14 days ahead, though accuracy tightens significantly within 72 hours of the event. Traders should monitor these official forecasts alongside deposit availability on the platform, as funding constraints can affect how quickly new positions settle and how easily capital moves through withdrawal rails once the market resolves.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.