Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen's early June weather will determine whether the highest temperature recorded at Bao'an International Airport on 9 June 2026 falls into one of several defined ranges. The settlement hinges on a single daily maximum reading from Wunderground's historical database, making this a straightforward meteorological measurement rather than a forecast consensus.

Shenzhen's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 28°C and 34°C during this period. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific range or minimal trading activity establishing price discovery. Comparable early-June readings from prior years show considerable variance depending on whether subtropical high-pressure systems dominate or monsoon moisture arrives early; this variability historically spans 5–6°C across different years, making the outcome genuinely uncertain rather than settled.

Traders monitoring this market should track the China Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during late May and early June, as storm systems can suppress temperatures significantly. Real-time atmospheric pressure patterns and sea-surface temperatures around the Pearl River Delta will crystallise the most likely outcome in the week preceding settlement. Deposit friction remains material for market participation; traders using SEPA transfers or Klarna on-ramps should account for 2–3 business days of settlement time before funds clear for position entry, whilst USDC deposits offer same-day liquidity for those already holding stablecoins.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 9? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Deposit UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.