Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 7?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen's early June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and the onset of the monsoon season. Historical records from Bao'an International Airport show that daily highs in early June typically range between 28–32°C, though occasional heat spikes can push readings toward 34–35°C when subtropical high-pressure systems stall over the Pearl River Delta. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating the outcome as predetermined within a narrow band—a pattern common in weather markets with thin liquidity where initial pricing reflects incomplete information rather than genuine conviction.

Seasonal transition dynamics favour moderate-to-warm outcomes. The East Asian summer monsoon typically intensifies after mid-June, but early June often experiences variable conditions as the transition unfolds. Cloud cover and afternoon convection can suppress afternoon peaks, whilst clear mornings and strong solar radiation in the absence of rain can drive temperatures upward. Wunderground's historical archive for Bao'an provides granular hourly data; traders monitoring the forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and regional synoptic patterns in late May will have clearer visibility on whether June 7 falls into a warm or moderate-temperature day.

Deposit friction remains material for weather-market participation. Traders using SEPA transfers or Klarna on-ramps face settlement delays that can compress the actionable window before the market closes at 12:00 UTC on June 7. USDC deposits offer faster liquidity access, though book depth in niche weather markets often reflects the payment rails available to the marginal trader rather than fundamental disagreement on outcomes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.