Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's daily maximum temperature on 4 June 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport and resolved against Wunderground's historical records. Early June sits within Shanghai's late spring period, when diurnal highs typically range between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, requiring resolution data to be finalised by that point.

Historical June temperatures at Pudong show considerable year-to-year variance. Between 2015 and 2024, 4 June highs ranged from 24°C in cooler years to 34°C during warmer spells, with a median around 29°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a calibration event given the 18-month lead time. Book depth typically correlates with deposit availability on UK-facing platforms; markets with shallow liquidity often reflect funding constraints rather than genuine uncertainty. Traders depositing via Klarna or SEPA rails may face settlement delays that compress trading windows closer to the event date.

Catalysts include China's meteorological agency updates (typically issued monthly) and any El Niño or La Niña signals that influence East Asian summer patterns. The China Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal outlooks in May, which often shift probability clusters in June-temperature markets. Withdrawal friction—whether funds clear via USDC or traditional rails—can suppress late trading activity, leaving early-season markets underexplored relative to their information content.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.