Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 20?

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Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 20 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data frames the current 0% YES probability as an outlier; June at Pudong typically sees daily highs climbing from 77°F to 83°F, rarely dropping below 69°F or exceeding 87°F [1]. The warmest day in recent June records reached 29.7°C (85.5°F), while the average high sits near 27°C (81°F) [4][6]. Given that 2026 forecasts project highs between 76° and 87°F, a complete absence of heat is statistically improbable, suggesting the market may be mispricing the baseline thermal risk [2].

Traders should monitor the onset of Shanghai’s humid rainy season, which brings average rainfall of 159mm and humidity near 79% in June, potentially suppressing peak temperatures [6]. A key catalyst is the scheduled shift in shortwave solar energy, which gradually decreases by 0.9 kWh during the month, a dependency that could limit heat accumulation [1]. Recent weather models for Pudong New District indicate daily highs ranging from 77° to 89°F, reinforcing that extreme heat remains a viable outcome despite current odds [8]. Funding flows into this book are currently driven by deposit friction on USDC and SEPA rails; as withdrawal costs via Klarna rise, liquidity may stagnate, obscuring the true depth of the market until settlement [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 20? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Deposit UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.