Highest temperature in Seoul on May 30?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 30 May 2026, Seoul's highest temperature will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's temperature range before markets lock. This timing creates a hard deadline for position adjustments once morning forecasts solidify.

Seoul's late May temperatures typically range between 22–28°C, with occasional spikes above 30°C during early heat waves. Historical data from the past five years shows May 30th highs clustering around 24–26°C, though 2019 recorded 29°C and 2021 reached 27°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either shallow liquidity or consensus that no extreme heat event is expected. Traders depositing via SEPA or Klarna should note that book depth often correlates with funding inflows; markets with thin order books may widen spreads significantly as settlement approaches, affecting both entry costs and withdrawal timing once positions resolve.

The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes 10-day forecasts each morning, with updates typically available by 06:00 UTC. Traders should monitor whether any upper-atmosphere pressure systems or tropical moisture patterns shift the May 29–30 outlook in the 72 hours before settlement. Withdrawal rails including USDC settlement may experience delays during high-volume resolution periods, so position sizing should account for liquidity constraints on exit.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on May 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.