Highest temperature in Seoul on May 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The market resolves on the day’s peak temperature at Incheon International Airport on 22 May, with the winning band determined by the highest Celsius reading recorded by the station before the close of the settlement window. For late May around Seoul and Incheon, normals are usually mild rather than hot: Seoul’s long-run May highs tend to sit in the low 20s °C, with readings typically climbing through the month and only occasional spikes into the high 20s. That makes a mid-20s result more typical than an early-summer surge, but a warm afternoon under clear skies can still push the day’s maximum above what the monthly average suggests.

The 0% YES crowd price implies the book is effectively assuming no path to the targeted outcome, which is usually more about market structure than weather. On a site like this, depth tends to depend on how easily users can top up and exit: card-style on-ramps such as Klarna, bank transfer via SEPA, and USDC rails all matter because they determine how quickly liquidity can be refreshed when a forecast shifts. In similar weather markets, pricing often stays sparse until late-hour model updates or an actual observation trend gives traders a reason to commit capital, especially when the payoff is tied to a narrow temperature band rather than a broad seasonal view.

The main catalysts are the overnight and morning forecast runs, plus any change in cloud cover, wind direction, or rainfall timing over the Seoul–Incheon corridor. The Korea Meteorological Administration and local forecast services can move expectations on whether the afternoon heats up enough to challenge the upper teens or low 20s °C, while Wunderground’s station history remains the settlement reference once the day is finalised. If clear, dry conditions persist, the highest reading usually comes from the mid-afternoon, but a sea breeze or showers can cap the peak well below warmer model output.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on May 22? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.