Highest temperature in Seoul on June 9?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 9 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, where the highest temperature recorded across all daylight and evening hours determines the settlement range. Early summer conditions in the Seoul metropolitan area typically bring warm, humid air masses from the south, with June averages around 23–25°C, though peaks often exceed 28°C depending on synoptic patterns and local urban heat effects.

Historical June temperature records at Incheon show considerable variability. The station has recorded highs ranging from 19°C on cooler, cloud-laden days to 32°C during heat waves driven by Tibetan anticyclones. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or face friction in capital deployment—deposit delays via Klarna or SEPA transfers can compress decision windows for weather markets with tight settlement dates. Book depth typically thickens once traders clear payment rails and gain confidence in forecast models, particularly as June approaches and meteorological agencies issue more precise outlooks.

The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes 10-day forecasts roughly weekly, with updates sharpening 5–7 days ahead of the event. Late May and early June atmospheric patterns—including the onset of the East Asian monsoon and positioning of high-pressure systems—will drive whether 2026 tracks toward cooler, wetter conditions or sustained warmth. Traders monitoring upper-air charts and sea-surface temperatures in the Western Pacific should watch for announcements around late May, when deposit friction typically eases and market liquidity responds to improved forecast certainty.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 9? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.