Highest temperature in Seoul on June 21?

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Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 21 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data for Seoul in June shows average highs of 26°C (80°F), with temperatures rarely falling below 17°C or exceeding 31°C (87°F) [1][2]. Recent years have seen record-breaking heat, including a national all-time peak of 41.0°C in Hongcheon and Seoul hitting 35.8°C in August 2025 [3][5]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific high range suggests traders view the threshold as unattainable given typical June variability, though the 2025 heatwave and 2026’s recent spike to 32.2°C (91°F) on 19 June indicate volatility is possible [4][6].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily forecasts and any sudden shifts in monsoon patterns, which could suppress temperatures below historical averages. A recent report from The Korea Herald notes that 59 weather stations across South Korea recorded their highest June daily averages ever between late June and early July 2025, highlighting the region’s increasing heat intensity [7]. Settlement depends entirely on Wunderground’s official reading for Incheon Airport, so any data gaps or station recalibrations could delay resolution. The market’s book depth correlates with funding flows from payment rails like SEPA and USDC; as deposit friction decreases, liquidity tightens around the 26–28°C range, reflecting the consensus that extreme highs above 31°C remain improbable despite recent anomalies.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 21? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Deposit UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.