Highest temperature in Seoul on June 20?

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Market context

On 20 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport will determine the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns only a 14% probability to the “YES” result, implying a belief that temperatures will likely stay below the 21°C threshold. Historical data frames this low probability with caution: mid-June averages in Seoul typically range between 26–28°C, and last year’s record on 20 June reached 29.4°C, suggesting that a sub-21°C outcome would be an extreme anomaly rather than a routine fluctuation[1][5].

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts from Wunderground and any official announcements from the Korea Meteorological Administration regarding heatwave schedules or sudden shifts in monsoon patterns, as these dependencies directly influence book depth and settlement clarity[3]. Recent reports from The Korea Times highlight that June 2025 saw record-breaking average daily temperatures, with Seoul hitting 28.2°C, reinforcing the expectation that a 21°C cap is highly improbable unless an unprecedented cold front intervenes[5]. The market’s traction remains tied to funding flows from depositors navigating payment rails like SEPA and USDC, where fee structures and withdrawal friction shape the liquidity available to back these odds.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.