Highest temperature in Seoul on June 16?

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Market context

Seoul's weather on 16 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, the official meteorological reference point for the metropolitan area. Mid-June in Seoul typically falls within the early monsoon season, with mean daily highs around 26–28°C, though heat waves can push temperatures significantly higher. The settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical data feed for that specific station, making data availability and source continuity critical to resolution.

Historical June temperature records for Seoul show considerable variance. The city has recorded highs exceeding 32°C in mid-June during anomalous warm periods, whilst cooler years see peaks near 24–25°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or pricing in uncertainty about liquidity depth rather than meteorological likelihood. Deposit friction—particularly for UK-based traders using SEPA rails or Klarna payment options—may suppress participation in lower-volume weather markets, compressing book depth and creating wider spreads that deter entry.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather forecasts released by the Korea Meteorological Administration in the weeks preceding mid-June 2026, as these typically influence regional temperature expectations. Withdrawal mechanics matter here: traders holding positions through settlement will need confidence in payout rails, whether via USDC stablecoin settlement or fiat withdrawal options. Early-season monsoon activity and any heat dome formation over East Asia in late May will signal whether June 16 sits within typical or elevated temperature ranges, though such forecasts remain unreliable beyond ten days.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.