Highest temperature in Seoul on June 15?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather in mid-June sits at the threshold between late spring and early monsoon season, with historical highs typically ranging between 26–29°C at Incheon International Airport, the official measurement point. The 0% implied probability suggests traders are either awaiting settlement data or treating this as a placeholder market with minimal liquidity. June 15th falls within Seoul's pre-rainy season window, when afternoon temperatures can spike sharply on clear days but remain suppressed if cloud cover and humidity dominate—a wide variance that normally justifies meaningful probability spreads across temperature bands.

Historical records from Incheon show June 15th highs have ranged from 21°C in cooler years to 29°C during heat waves, with the 30-year median around 25–26°C. The current 0% reading reflects either early-stage market formation or genuine uncertainty about which temperature bracket will resolve. Traders monitoring this market should track the Korea Meteorological Administration's 10-day forecasts, released weekly, which typically gain accuracy five to seven days before settlement. Deposit friction remains a known constraint on prediction market depth; traders using SEPA transfers or Klarna on-ramps may face settlement delays that compress their ability to adjust positions in the final 48 hours before the June 15th window closes.

The market's book depth will likely remain thin until late May, when seasonal weather patterns crystallise and traders can confidently distinguish between sub-25°C, 25–27°C, and above-28°C outcomes. Early depositors via faster rails (USDC direct) gain an edge in capturing mispricing before the crowd reprices around meteorological consensus.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 15? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.