Highest temperature in Seoul on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 11 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport will settle this market into one of five ranges, from below 25°C to 32°C or above. Seoul's early summer climate typically produces daily highs between 26–29°C in mid-June, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical data feed for the airport station, which serves as the official meteorological reference point for the region and eliminates ambiguity around measurement location or methodology.

Historical June temperature patterns at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variance. Between 2015 and 2024, the highest daily temperatures in early-to-mid June ranged from 23°C to 31°C, with roughly 60% of years recording peaks between 27–29°C. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned suggests either extreme confidence in a sub-25°C outcome or minimal trading activity and deposit flow into this particular market slot. Given typical seasonal conditions, the 27–29°C and 29–32°C ranges historically capture the majority of outcomes, making the current odds a potential entry point for traders with conviction in warmer-than-baseline scenarios.

South Korea's meteorological agency publishes seasonal forecasts and heat-wave alerts through June; traders should monitor official KMA advisories released in early June for any anomalous pressure systems or tropical influences that could shift the expected range. Deposit accessibility via SEPA, Klarna, and USDC rails determines real-time liquidity depth on lower-traction weather markets; shallow books on niche regional forecasts often reflect funding friction rather than genuine disagreement on outcomes.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 11? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.