Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's peak temperature on 10 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport's official weather station and resolved against historical records from Wunderground. Early June in Seoul typically sees daily highs between 24–28°C, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. The 0% implied probability reflects either minimal trading activity or strong consensus that the market's resolution criteria—specifically the Incheon station reading rather than central Seoul—creates ambiguity traders wish to avoid.

Historical June temperatures at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variance. In June 2023, the station recorded a high of 31.2°C; in June 2022, it peaked at 29.8°C. The 2020s have seen earlier onset of summer heat across South Korea, with meteorological agencies noting a shift in seasonal patterns. Traders should note that airport stations often record slightly cooler readings than urban centres due to proximity to water and open terrain, making direct comparison to Seoul city forecasts problematic.

The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 10 June 2026, creating a hard cutoff before afternoon temperatures typically peak. Traders relying on real-time forecasts should monitor Korea Meteorological Administration updates in May and early June, though seasonal models remain unreliable beyond two weeks. Deposit friction via SEPA or Klarna may suppress smaller positions; the market's thin liquidity suggests traders should verify withdrawal rails before committing capital, particularly given the narrow temperature bands typical of June resolution ranges.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.