Highest temperature in NYC on May 30?

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Market context

New York City's peak temperature on 30 May 2026 will be measured at LaGuardia Airport and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full diurnal cycle for that date. Late May in New York typically sees high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s Fahrenheit, though heat waves can push readings into the mid-80s or occasionally higher.

The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty about which specific temperature band will resolve, rather than doubt that a measurable high will occur. Historical May 30th data at LaGuardia shows considerable year-to-year variation: the record high for that calendar date sits at 89°F (set in 1991), whilst cooler years have seen highs around 68°F. Spring weather patterns across the northeastern United States remain influenced by Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and jet-stream positioning, both of which exhibit natural variability that extends beyond standard seasonal forecasting windows.

Traders monitoring this market should track National Weather Service medium-range forecasts beginning in early May, particularly any signals of high-pressure systems or tropical moisture advection that could elevate temperatures above climatological norms. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Climate Prediction Center issues 6–10 day outlooks that often provide directional guidance on temperature anomalies. Deposit infrastructure supporting this market—including SEPA transfers, Klarna payment options, and USDC on-ramps—enables traders to fund positions without traditional banking delays, though withdrawal timelines should be verified post-settlement to ensure liquidity matches trading horizons.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.