Highest temperature in NYC on May 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

New York's weather on 24 May 2026 will be recorded at LaGuardia Airport and resolved against historical temperature bands. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must have funded accounts and positions locked before the final observation is recorded. Liquidity depth on temperature markets depends on deposit availability; sites offering faster on-ramps via Klarna or SEPA transfers typically see tighter spreads on May forecasts, since European traders can participate without multi-day settlement delays.

May temperatures at LaGuardia historically range between 65°F and 85°F, with the 30-year average high around 76°F. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient deposit flow to activate the full order book. Comparable May markets from prior years show that once traders can deposit via USDC or regional payment rails, implied probabilities shift sharply within 48 hours of settlement—indicating current odds reflect capital constraints rather than meteorological consensus.

The National Weather Service issues its extended forecast roughly 10 days before any given date; the 24 May forecast will solidify around mid-May. Traders should monitor Atlantic weather patterns in early May, as coastal systems can suppress temperatures significantly. Withdrawal rails matter here: sites offering same-day SEPA payouts or Klarna refunds typically retain traders through settlement, which correlates with tighter final-day pricing and reduced arbitrage opportunities between competing books.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.