Highest temperature in NYC on June 7?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

New York City's peak temperature on 7 June 2026 will be recorded at LaGuardia Airport and settled against historical data from Weather Underground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full diurnal cycle—morning lows, afternoon highs, and any evening cooling—before the market locks. LaGuardia sits at sea level near Jamaica Bay, where maritime influence moderates extremes compared to inland Manhattan.

June temperatures in New York typically range from 75°F to 85°F, with historical records showing occasional spikes above 90°F during early-summer heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity or traders are pricing in a specific temperature threshold as unlikely. Without knowing which range brackets are available in the resolution categories, the flat probability reflects either very tight confidence bands or minimal trading activity. Comparable June days at LaGuardia show high variability: some years peak near 70°F under cloud cover and Atlantic influence, whilst others exceed 88°F during continental air mass intrusions.

The National Weather Service issues its six-day forecast around five days before settlement, with updates every twelve hours. Traders should monitor late-May atmospheric patterns—particularly whether a Bermuda high-pressure system develops or Atlantic storm systems track northward—as these drive June 7th conditions. Deposit flows on prediction market platforms typically spike when weather forecasts crystallise, usually 48 to 72 hours before event resolution. SEPA transfers and stablecoin on-ramps see increased volume as traders position ahead of settlement windows, making liquidity depth a key consideration for entry and exit timing.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 7? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.