Highest temperature in London on May 30?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 30 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station, with resolution occurring at midday on the settlement date. London's late-May temperatures typically range between 15–22°C, though outlier heat events do occur; the current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or expect conditions well outside historical norms for that date.

May temperatures in London have shown modest volatility year-on-year. Over the past decade, 30 May readings at comparable London stations have rarely exceeded 25°C, with the median sitting around 18–20°C. The 0% probability reflects baseline expectations rather than any specific forecast signal, indicating minimal trading activity has yet priced in conviction around extreme heat or unseasonable cold. Historical precedent suggests mid-range outcomes (18–22°C) carry the highest empirical frequency.

Weather forecasting accuracy degrades sharply beyond two weeks; current meteorological models will offer little predictive value until early May 2026. Traders monitoring this market should watch UK Met Office seasonal outlooks released in April, which may flag anomalous pressure patterns or Atlantic circulation shifts affecting late-spring temperatures. Deposit flows and book depth will likely remain thin until late May approaches, when near-term forecasts crystallise. SEPA transfers and USDC on-ramps provide settlement flexibility for traders committing capital to longer-dated weather contracts.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.