Highest temperature in London on May 28?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 28 May 2026, London City Airport's weather station will record a daily high temperature. The settlement hinges on which range that reading falls into, with data sourced directly from Weather Underground's historical records for that specific location and date. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating it as illiquid—a common pattern for single-day weather markets that lack sufficient deposit volume to establish meaningful price discovery.

London's late May temperatures typically cluster between 18–22°C, with occasional spikes to 24–25°C during warm spells. Historical data from May 2023 and 2024 shows highs of 21°C and 19°C respectively at City Airport, providing a baseline for what constitutes an ordinary versus exceptional day. Unusually hot May days (26°C+) occur roughly once every five to seven years in the capital, making extreme ranges less probable but not unprecedented. The absence of trading activity here likely reflects the market's reliance on deposit liquidity—without sufficient SEPA transfers, Klarna on-ramps, or USDC bridge flows, even straightforward weather markets struggle to attract initial traders.

Traders monitoring this market should track the UK Met Office's May forecast updates and any Atlantic weather systems approaching in late spring. Deposit friction remains the primary constraint: markets with shallow books require lower withdrawal fees and faster settlement rails to encourage participation. If this market gains traction through improved payment infrastructure, the crowd probability will shift from 0% to reflect genuine temperature expectations rather than liquidity absence.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.