Highest temperature in London on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 9 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station, which sits in East London and typically records temperatures 1–2°C cooler than central London due to proximity to the Thames and lower urban heat island effect. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or uncertain about the data source's accessibility on settlement day.

London's June temperatures have ranged from 16°C to 32°C over the past two decades, with the median high around 21–23°C. The 2022 heatwave saw 35°C recorded across parts of the capital, though City Airport itself rarely exceeds 28°C in June. Historical volatility means the outcome depends heavily on whether a high-pressure system or Atlantic low dominates the week leading up to 9 June. The Met Office publishes extended forecasts from mid-May onwards, which traders can cross-reference against seasonal patterns and climate indices like the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Book depth on this market will depend on deposit flows through Klarna, SEPA transfers, and USDC on-ramps during May 2026. Traders requiring sterling liquidity should note that withdrawal rails vary by payment method; SEPA redemptions typically settle within two business days, whilst Klarna payouts may incur processing delays. Early liquidity often clusters around markets with clear historical precedent and low settlement ambiguity, making this weather contract's traction a function of how easily traders can fund positions and exit stakes before the June window closes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.