Highest temperature in London on June 17?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

London's highest temperature on 17 June 2026 will be recorded at City Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, meaning traders must commit capital before the day's peak heat has fully materialised. This timing constraint—resolving mid-afternoon rather than at day's end—creates asymmetry in information availability and affects how traders price tail-risk scenarios.

June temperatures in London typically range from 18°C to 24°C, with extremes rare but not unprecedented. The record high for mid-June stands at 28.7°C (set in 1976), though the 30-year average sits closer to 20°C. Current crowd probability at 0% suggests the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity or conviction to establish meaningful price discovery. Comparable June markets on polymarket-deposit.co.uk show that weather resolution markets gain depth only after deposit flows stabilise; SEPA transfers and Klarna on-ramps typically see higher participation once traders have cleared initial funding friction.

The Met Office publishes extended forecasts from mid-May onwards, with updates sharpening in the week before settlement. Traders should monitor early June weather patterns—particularly Atlantic pressure systems and continental heat advection—as these drive variance in final outcomes. Withdrawal rails matter here: traders holding positions through settlement will need confidence in USDC or GBP redemption timelines, since weather markets often see late liquidation as the event date approaches and conviction shifts.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on June 17? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Deposit UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.