Highest temperature in London on June 16?

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Market context

On 16 June 2026, London City Airport's weather station will record a daily high temperature. The settlement mechanism draws from Wunderground's historical archive, which captures hourly readings throughout the day and locks the peak value at midnight UTC. This particular date falls in mid-June, when London typically experiences mild to warm conditions; the 30-year average high for this period sits around 21°C, though outliers in either direction occur regularly.

The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will contain the actual high, rather than scepticism about measurement itself. Historical June data from London City Airport shows considerable variance: the station has recorded June highs ranging from 16°C in cooler years to 28°C during warm spells. The 2022 heatwave pushed readings into the low 30s during mid-June, demonstrating that extreme outcomes, whilst uncommon, remain within the realm of possibility. Traders assessing this market should examine the specific temperature brackets offered and cross-reference them against the station's 20-year distribution.

Deposit flows into prediction markets typically accelerate when traders perceive edge in weather-dependent contracts. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 16 June, giving traders a narrow window to adjust positions based on morning forecasts. Liquidity depth depends partly on funding availability through your platform's payment rails—SEPA transfers, USDC on-chain settlement, and Klarna's deferred payment options all reduce friction for European traders entering positions. Monitor the Met Office's 10-day forecast from mid-June onwards; significant revisions to temperature predictions often precede shifts in market pricing.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.