Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's peak daily temperature on 9 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract climate data. The settlement hinges on the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure in degrees Celsius to one decimal place, with resolution occurring only after the Observatory finalises and publishes the reading. The 3% crowd probability reflects the specificity required: traders must predict not just whether it will be hot, but which exact temperature band will contain the day's high.

Historical June temperatures in Hong Kong cluster between 28°C and 33°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 34–35°C during early-summer heat waves. The 2015 heatwave saw 34.8°C on 9 June; more typically, mid-June maxima sit around 30–31°C. Current probability distribution suggests the crowd expects a moderate day within the typical range, with tail outcomes (sub-28°C or above 35°C) priced as unlikely. Seasonal patterns and the Observatory's consistent measurement methodology provide a stable baseline for calibration.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Asian summer monsoon onset timing and any tropical cyclone activity forecast for early June 2026, both of which materially affect Hong Kong's temperature profile. The Observatory publishes extended forecasts roughly two weeks ahead; these updates typically drive repricing as the settlement date approaches. Deposit friction remains material for book depth—traders using SEPA transfers or Klarna on-ramps may face settlement delays that compress trading windows before the 12:00 UTC close, whilst USDC deposits enable tighter final positioning.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.