Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's June weather brings the onset of the southwest monsoon and rising humidity ahead of the summer peak. The highest daily temperature recorded on 4 June will be measured by the Hong Kong Observatory's official station and reported to one decimal place in Celsius. Historical June maxima in Hong Kong typically range between 28–32°C, though anomalous heat events have occasionally pushed readings above 33°C. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders view this as a binary outcome market where specific temperature thresholds carry unequal conviction.

June 4th falls within Hong Kong's pre-monsoon transition period, when daytime highs are influenced by solar intensity, cloud cover, and upper-level wind patterns. Comparable dates in recent years show variability: June 2023 recorded 31.1°C on the 4th, whilst June 2024 saw 29.8°C. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes daily climate data with a lag of several days, meaning settlement cannot occur until the official "Daily Extract" is released and verified. Traders should monitor the Observatory's publication schedule and any tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea, which could suppress temperatures through increased cloud and rainfall.

Deposit friction remains material for market depth. Traders funding positions via Klarna or SEPA transfers may face settlement delays of 2–3 business days, whilst USDC deposits settle instantly but require stablecoin on-ramps. The market's traction depends on whether sufficient capital flows through these rails to support meaningful liquidity around the June 4th resolution window.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 4? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.