Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 10?

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Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 10 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract climate database. The settlement hinges on the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure in degrees Celsius to one decimal place, with the window closing at 12:00 UTC on that date. Given the 0% crowd probability, traders are currently pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal liquidity depth driving the odds to extremes.

June sits within Hong Kong's early summer monsoon season, when daily highs typically range between 29–33°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C. Historical Observatory data shows June maxima cluster around 31–32°C in most years, with outlier events (tropical cyclone precursors or high-pressure systems) occasionally driving spikes. The current flat probability distribution suggests the market lacks sufficient deposit inflows to establish meaningful odds across temperature bands—a common pattern when book depth remains shallow across weather markets.

Traders monitoring this settlement should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone alerts issued in early June, as these directly influence daily maxima. The Observatory publishes extended outlooks monthly; their next update before the settlement date will signal whether atmospheric conditions favour typical seasonal temperatures or anomalous heat. Deposit accessibility via SEPA transfers or USDC on-ramps will determine whether additional liquidity enters the market, potentially sharpening probability estimates as the date approaches.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 10? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Deposit UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.