Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4?

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Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak summer heat on 4 June 2026, with the settlement hinging on the single highest temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport Station throughout that calendar day. The market's 0% crowd probability suggests traders have not yet committed capital to any specific temperature band, leaving the book shallow and settlement mechanics untested at this early stage.

Guangzhou's June climatology shows consistent patterns: daily highs typically range from 31–34°C, with occasional spikes above 35°C during early-season heatwaves. Historical data from the same weather station reveals that temperatures exceeding 36°C occur roughly once every three to four years in early June, whilst readings below 30°C are rare. The absence of trading activity reflects both the distant settlement window and the predictability of subtropical monsoon conditions, which narrow the plausible range considerably compared to volatile winter or transitional-season markets.

Traders monitoring this market should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late May, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature extremes. Any unusual atmospheric patterns—such as early tropical cyclone activity or anomalous upper-air circulation—could shift expectations materially. Deposit and withdrawal friction remains a practical consideration: traders using SEPA transfers or Klarna on-ramps should account for settlement timing, as the market closes at 12:00 UTC on 4 June, requiring funds to be accessible before that window. The shallow initial book depth means early depositors establishing positions may face wider spreads until competing liquidity providers enter.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.