Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 20?

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Market context

20 June in Chengdu is about the day’s highest reading at Shuangliu Airport, not the average or the morning starting point, so the market should be read as a single-day spike rather than a broad weather call. Late-June Chengdu is normally warm to hot: typical June highs are around 28–31°C, with some guides putting the month’s average daily high at about 30°C and AccuWeather’s June 2026 range for Chengdu running up to 93°F, or roughly 34°C.[6][7][4] That makes the current 0% YES implied probability look like an extreme discount to seasonal norms, although the contract resolves on the airport station’s recorded maximum, which can be pushed by afternoon heat and humidity rather than the citywide average.[6][7]

For context, a similar Polymarket market for Chengdu on 19 June was pricing 34°C at 95%, with 35°C at 5%, showing that nearby dates can move sharply even within the same weather regime.[1] That kind of clustering matters in temperature markets because a small shift in forecast highs can change which band settles, especially when the resolution source is a specific station rather than a city forecast. The main historical reference point is that Chengdu’s June climate usually sits in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, so a result at or above 34°C would be hot but still within the envelope seen in summer forecasts.[2][3][5][7]

Traders should watch the final 24-hour forecast updates, any change in the airport station’s reported maximum, and whether rain or cloud cover arrives during the afternoon peak, because those are the usual catalysts that move the terminal band. The practical flow angle matters too: tighter funding rails such as SEPA or USDC reduce the time between a new weather update and fresh order flow, while card or Klarna-style deposit friction can slow reaction and thin the book, which is one reason late-session depth can look different from the headline probability. When on-ramp costs are low and withdrawals are fast, weather contracts tend to attract more short-dated capital around the final forecast run, and that liquidity can matter more than the initial crowd read.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.