Highest temperature in Beijing on June 9?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's daily maximum temperature on 9 June 2026 will be measured at Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather records. Early June in Beijing typically sees temperatures in the mid-to-high 20s Celsius, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must rely on forecasts and overnight data publication from Wunderground to confirm the final range.

Historical June temperatures at Beijing's airport station show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, 9 June highs ranged from 22°C to 32°C, with an average around 27–28°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to attract initial positions. Comparable early-summer Beijing markets typically see tighter clustering around 26–30°C ranges, where deposit friction and withdrawal rails (SEPA, USDC, Klarna) determine whether traders commit capital.

Traders monitoring this market should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week prior to settlement, as these drive real-time adjustments in similar weather contracts. Book depth depends on payment accessibility—markets with lower withdrawal friction and multi-rail deposit options (particularly USDC for cross-border traders avoiding SEPA delays) tend to accumulate deeper positions. The lack of current trading activity suggests the market awaits either a catalyst forecast or improved on-ramp visibility before meaningful capital flows establish probability anchors.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on June 9? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.