Highest temperature in Beijing on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 4 June 2026 will be measured at Capital International Airport Station and settled against historical records from Weather Underground. Early June in Beijing typically sees daily highs between 28–32°C as the city transitions into summer, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either low trading volume or genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve, rather than confidence that extreme heat is impossible.

Historical data from Beijing's June weather shows considerable year-to-year variation. In June 2023, the city experienced a severe heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40°C; by contrast, June 2022 saw more moderate peaks around 30–33°C. The settlement window closing at midday UTC on 4 June means traders must account for the full calendar day's temperature range being recorded before final resolution, creating timing friction for those depositing funds late in the trading window. Seasonal forecasts and real-time meteorological updates from China's National Meteorological Centre typically become more precise 7–10 days before the event.

Deposit infrastructure matters here: traders entering positions need frictionless on-ramps to capital. SEPA transfers, Klarna instant funding, and USDC direct deposits all reduce settlement lag, allowing late-window entries as June approaches. Book depth depends on accessible payment rails; markets with higher deposit velocity tend to attract more marginal traders willing to bet on narrow temperature bands, tightening spreads and improving resolution certainty.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on June 4? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.