2026 U.S. Open: To Make the Cut

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 U.S. Open is at Shinnecock Hills, and the cut is the standard **top 60 and ties after 36 holes**, so a 0% implied chance on a “to make the cut” market is only consistent if the named player is already out of contention or mathematically eliminated.[2][3][4] At this stage of the championship, the market is effectively a live binary on whether the player survives Friday’s second-round threshold, with the cut line itself sitting around **4-over** in current coverage.[1]

Historical cut lines at the U.S. Open are often relatively high, which matters because it keeps a wider band of players alive deep into round two; recent reporting notes the event has previously reached **8-over** and even **10-over**, while the usual field that advances is in the mid-60s once ties are counted.[1][7] That framing helps explain why pre-cut books can be shallow or illiquid until scoring tightens, and why on-ramp friction matters: deposits that clear quickly through rails such as **Klarna**, **SEPA**, or **USDC** tend to be the ones that actually feed the book when volatility spikes around the cut line.

For traders, the main catalysts are the leaderboard after round two, any injury or withdrawal news, and whether a player can still post a score before the cut is finalised; official championship coverage and live model trackers update the cut picture in real time.[3][4][8] The decisive dependency is simple: once the top-60-plus-ties line becomes mathematically unreachable, the market resolves **No**, but until then late funding flows can still matter because fresh deposits can move the price in thin weekend-entry markets.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track 2026 U.S. Open: To Make the Cut on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.