Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump's continued tenure as President through 30 June 2026 is priced at 99% likelihood by market participants. The resolution criteria require permanent departure from office—whether through resignation, removal via impeachment and conviction, or invocation of the 25th Amendment—with any announcement of such departure triggering immediate settlement to Yes, regardless of implementation timing. Temporary suspension or procedural removal does not qualify.

Presidential removal outside election cycles remains historically rare in American governance. Richard Nixon's 1974 resignation followed sustained impeachment inquiry and loss of congressional support; no sitting president has been convicted and removed since Andrew Johnson in 1868. The 25th Amendment, ratified in 1967, has never been invoked for permanent removal. The current 1% probability reflects market assessment that circumstances sufficient to trigger resignation or removal—typically involving loss of party support, criminal conviction, or severe incapacity—remain distant within the eighteen-month window. Recent polling and congressional composition suggest sustained Republican backing, which historically constrains removal pathways.

Traders monitoring this market should track developments in ongoing legal proceedings, particularly sentencing outcomes in New York state cases and any federal trials, alongside shifts in Republican congressional alignment. The House Judiciary Committee's composition and any impeachment activity would signal material catalyst movement. Deposit flexibility matters here: traders entering positions benefit from platforms offering multiple funding rails—SEPA transfers for European accounts, Klarna's staggered payment options for UK participants, and USDC on-chain settlement for those managing capital across venues. Liquidity depth in this market correlates directly with accessible deposit mechanisms, as shallow books often reflect friction in funding access rather than genuine probability disagreement.

Methodology

This page reviews Trump out as President by June 30? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Deposit UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.